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Aug 30, 2015

Iran Deal Will Lead To Middle East War

Democrats believe that Saudi Arabia and Israel will wait patiently until Iran uses the benefits of Obama's deal to gather enough strength to kill them.  The deal frees $150 billion in frozen assets that Iran can use to buy weapons, train terrorists and finance weapons development.  The agreement allows the inspection of only "civilian" Iranian nuclear sites and allows the Iranians to demand 24 days advance notice of inspections.  So Democrats believe this deal has secured peace in our time.

I believe that Saudi Arabia and Israel will attack Iran very soon after the deal goes into effect because both Saudis and Israelis believe that Iran's threats to convert or kill all Sunni Muslims in Saudi Arabia and to wipe Israel off the map are exactly what the Iranians intend to do if given the chance.  

Iran's economy is very easy to damage.  About 90% of Iran's oil exports flow through the big oil terminal on Kharg Island, 16 miles off shore.  The Iraqi air force knocked out Kharg Island during the 198-1988 Iran Iraq war.  Both Saudi Arabia and Israel have air forces far superior to the Iraqi air force of the 80's.  

Also, while Iran has lots of crude oil, it has no oil refineries.  They import all refined oil products, including gasoline, diesel and kerosene.  Kerosene is widely used for home cooking, so shortages would cause political instability.  Mining Iran's major ports from the air would stop the importation almost all refined imports.

If the Saudis and Israelis decide to hit Iranian nuclear facilities directly, they can't do it with conventional weapons.  In particular, Iran's nuclear facility at Fordow has equipment levels as low as 300 feet below ground.  A 30,000 pound bunker buster bomb with conventional explosives might be able to inflict significant damage.  Unfortunately, only the US Air Force has the capability to deliver a bomb that heavy against current Iranian air defenses. The alternative for the Israelis is nuclear weapons.  What's worse is that any nuclear weapons targeted at Fordow will have to be ground bursts, that is the fireball will have to touch the ground.  This means a lot of radioactive dirt would get sucked up into the atmosphere.  Also, it’s not clear that only one nuclear weapon would do the job.  Due to payload restrictions of Israeli aircraft, they might not be able to use the kind of heavily armored ground penetrating nuclear bombs required to destroy Fordow.  Instead, they might have to dig Fordow out with two or three nuclear explosions spaced out 15 to 30 minutes apart.

To sum up, in my view, no deal means continuing the brush fire wars of the Middle East.  Singing the agreement means a general war in the Middle East that would likely escalate to nuclear weapons.  Liberals who back the deal with Iran are the real war mongers.

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